printOn the Role of Historical Eras and Symbols in Modeling Dynamics and Shocks of Social Attitudes in Russia
Кaracharovskiy V.V.
Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof., Faculty of Economic Sciences, Head of the Laboratory for Comparative Analysis of Post-Socialist Development, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia. vvk@hse.ru
This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, grant No. 24‑28‑01892.
Кaracharovskiy V.V. On the Role of Historical Eras and Symbols in Modeling Dynamics and Shocks of Social Attitudes in Russia. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2025. No 6. P. 3-14
The article evaluates the possibility of forecasting mass social attitudes based on the interest of the population for the eras in the development of the country. Historical eras and their symbols are considered as comparison standards, temporal analogues of reference groups that provide the mass consciousness with samples of “reserve” standards of living and standards of achieved results, as starting points for assessing the degree of satisfaction of the population with the development of the country in the current period. An approach to modeling the dynamics and shocks of the index of the state of affairs in the country (VCIOM index 2018–2025 was used) based on statistics of Internet queries by Russians for data on the eras and/or their symbols that are important for the modern history of Russia is proposed. Basing on it, the nature of the connection between the population’s interest in reference eras and the dynamics of social attitudes in Russia is discussed, and the phenomena of economic and ideological gaps and economic in the dynamics of social attitudes are derived. The contribution of the heroic‑ patriotic complex of eras and symbols to greater accuracy of forecasting social attitudes is shown in addition to the system of economic factors: interest in the Great Patriotic War, Victory, USSR historical connotations of the concepts “Homeland” and “Superpower”, I. V. Stalin’s name.
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