printUkraine – Current Demographic Crisis and Medium-Term Scenarios of Population Dynamics
Sushchiy S.Ya.
Dr. Sci. (Philos.), Chief researcher, Federal Research Center the Southern Scientific Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Rostov-on-Don, Russia SS7707@mail.ru
The research was carried out within the framework of the State Assignment of the Southern Scientific Center of RAS “Southern macroregion: modern international and domestic positioning (socio-economic and sociodemographic vectors)”.
Sushchiy S.Ya. Ukraine – Current Demographic Crisis and Medium-Term Scenarios of Population Dynamics. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2026. No 3. P. 52-73
The article examines the population dynamics of Ukraine in the first half of the 2020s, and performs a multi-scenario (18 variants) demographic forecast until the mid‑21st century for various combinations of the re-emigration process, further migration activity, birth and mortality rates. It is established that in 2022–2024, the country’s population within the limits controlled by the central government decreased from 37.0–37.5 to 26.0–27.5 million people. The main losses were related to the outflow (6–6.5 million people) and the loss of a number of territories (2.4–2.9 million people). If the active stage of the armed conflict ends, we can expect some growth in the population of Ukraine due to the re-emigration of some refugees. But the further quantitative dynamics of the country’s population will be negative under any demographic scenario (for 2027–2051 natural losses may amount to 5.2– 7.1 million people). The most probable range of its numbers in the early 2030s is 24.9–27.9 million; in the early 2040s – 21.8–26.1; in the early 2050s – 19.1–24.4 million people. The median age for 2022–2051 may increase by 7–11 years (from 41.3 to 48.4–52.6), and the proportion of people over 59 years old may increase from 24.1 to 35.8–39.9%. For 2022–2025, the group of women of active fertile age (20–39 years) decreased in Ukraine from 5.0 to 3.2–3.3 million people. Following the return of some refugees, this group may show some growth, but will then continue to rapidly decline. Its most likely size in the early 2050s is 2.1–2.55 million, and in the early 2070s, 1.4–2.1 million. A serious deformation of the sex and age structure of the population determines the preservation of significant natural decline in the long term. Prolongation of the current negative trends for several decades can lead to a 2–4‑fold decrease in the population of Ukraine by the end of the century from the level of the beginning of 2022.
Comprehensive Demographic Forecast of Ukraine for the Period up to 2050. (2006) Kiev: UCSR. (In Ukr.)
Demographic forecasts. Website of the M. V. Ptukha iDSD of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. URL: https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/popforecast2009–2020.rar (accessed 22.10.2025). (In Ukr.)
Libanova E. M. (2018) External labor migrations of Ukrainians: scales, causes, consequences. Demografіya ta socіal’na ekonomіka [Demography and Social Economy]. No. 2(33): 11–26. DOI: 10.15407/dse2018.0211. (In Ukr.)
Piechowska М. (2024) Ukraine Facing Multiple Socio-Demographic Challenges. PISM BULLETIN. Nо. 99 (2407). 5 July.
Poznyak O. V. (2019) Reverse migration to Ukraine: volume and characteristics of returnees. Demografіya ta socіal’na ekonomіka [Demography and social economy]. No.1(35): 82–96. DOI: 10.15407/dse2019.01.082. (In Ukr.)
Pirozhkov S. I. (1992) Labor Potential in Demographic Measurement. Kiev: Naukova Dumka. (In Russ.)
Poznyak O. V., Shevchuk P. E. (2014) Demographic prospects of Ukraine until 2060. Demografіya ta socіal’na ekonomіka [Demography and Social Economy]. No 1(21): 72–84. (In Ukr.)
Refugees from Ukraine: Who are They, How Many of Them and How to Return Them? Final report. (2023) August. (In Ukr.)
Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine for 2021. (2022) Kiev: Derzhstat Ukrainy. (In Ukr.)
Strategy of demographic development of Ukraine for the period up to 2040. (2024) September. (In Ukr.)
Sushchy S. Ya. (2024) Northern Black Sea region-Azov region: demographic and economic potential and prospects for the economic development of new regions of Russia. Regionologiya [Regionology]. Vol. 32. No. 2: 345–367 DOI: 10.15507/2413-1407.127.032.202402.345-367; EDN: DPDTYO. (In Russ.)
Suschiy S. Ja., Suschaya E. S. (2024) Post-soviet Ukraine: geodemographic processes in the country and dynamics of the russian population]. Regionalnaya ekonomika. Yug Rossii [Regional Economy. South of Russia]. Vol. 12. No. 3: 132–145 DOI: 10.15688/re.volsu.2024.3.13; EDN: DVEWTR. (In Russ.)
Tables of Fertility, Mortality, and Average Life Expectancy. 2021. (2022) Kiev: Derzhstat Ukrainy. (In Ukr.)
The Number of Cash Population of Ukraine as of January 1, 2022. (2022) Kiev: Derzhstat Ukrainy. (In Ukr.)
Tverdostup М. (2023) The Demographic Challenges to Ukraine’s Economic Reconstruction. Policy Notes and Reports 71. Vienna: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies.
Ukrainian Refugees after three Years Abroad: How Many of Them and Who Will Return? The Fourth Wave of Research. (2025) International Renaissance Foundation. (In Ukr.)
Ukraine’s Resilience to Crises: Formation and Development of Human Capital. (2021) February. (In Ukr.)