Post Assessment of the Reliability of Social Survey Data and Formation of Trust to Pollsters

Post Assessment of the Reliability of Social Survey Data and Formation of Trust to Pollsters


Zelinsky S.E.

Dr. Sci. (Public Administration), Assoc. Prof., Director of the Regional Center for Advanced Training of the Kirovograd Region, Kropivnitskiy (Kirovograd), Ukraine s_zel@ukr.net

ID of the Article: 8373


For citation:

Zelinsky S.E. Post Assessment of the Reliability of Social Survey Data and Formation of Trust to Pollsters. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2020. No 11. P. 48-57




Abstract

Current situation with electoral polls in Ukraine suggests that the ability of the survey industry to obtain accurate information about society requires certain checks and control refinements. To assess how reliable political sociological ratings are, it is proposed to consider the examples of the last two national election campaigns of 2019 (presidential and parliamentary). The fact-checking method is considered as one of the ways to ensure the reliability of pre-election forecasts. With its help, the reliability of the results of opinion polls and the degree of trust in sociological companies and services (pollsters) are investigated based on the processing of data obtained during the last month before voting day in the national elections in Ukraine. To implement fact-checking, statistical indicators of the average, absolute and relative error were used, and the concept of «negative points» was introduced to assess the results of the opinion poll (sociological company), which are associated with the value of the relative error. The processing and analysis of data from 23 opinion polls of voters during the presidential election campaign and 44 during the early elections to the Ukrainian parliament in 2019 made it possible to obtain tools that, in the future, will ensure the «cleaning» of published results of sociological research from possible manipulations.


Keywords
public opinion; survey; sociological research; rating; pollster; fact checking

References

Artemov G.P. (2002) Political Sociology: Study Guide. Moscow: Logos. (In Russ.)

Goncharuk-Cholach T.V., Dzhugla N.V. (2018) Political Sociology: A Textbook. Ternopil: Ekonomichna dumka TNEU. (In Ukr.)

Knyazeva E.V. (2013) Fundamental Reasons of Distrust to Survey Researches during Pre-election Period. Vіsnik LNU іm. T. Shevchenka. Sotsiologichni nauky [Bulletin of Luhansk Taras Shevchenko National University. Sociological Sciences]. No. 11(270). Part І: 174–186. (In Russ.)

Petrov N.A., Petrova N.N. (2015) On Improving the Influence of Opinion Polls on the Social and Political Processes in Modern Democratic State. Elektornnyy nauchnyy zhurnal “Neftegazovoe delo” [Electronic Scientific Journal 'Oil and Gas Business']. No. 1: 497–532. URL: http://ogbus.ru/files/ ogbus/issues/1_2015/ogbus_1_2015_p497-532_PetrovNA_ru.pdf (accessed 30.09.2020). (In Russ.)

Poltorak V.A., Petrov O.V. (2009) Sociology of Politics: Encyclopedic Dictionary. Kiev: Evropeiskiy Universytet. (In Ukr.)

Yakovleva M.G. (2015) Publication of sociological information as a factor of influencing electoral behavior of citizens. Istoricheskie, filosofskie, politicheskie i yuridicheskie nauki, kulturologiya i iskusstvovedenie. Voprosy teorii i praktiki [Historical, Philosophical, Political and Law Sciences, Culturology and Study of Art. Issues of Theory and Practice]. No. 4(42). Part 2: 209–215. URL: https://www.gramota.net/ articles/issn_1997-292X_2014_4-2_56.pdf (accessed 30.09.2020). (In Russ.)

Yarulin I.F., Ilinykh A.V. (2018) On the Quality of Electoral Polls and Their Representation in the Media of Russian Far East. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. Vol. 5. No. 3: 77–86. DOI: 10.14530/reg.2018.3.77. (In Russ.)

Content No 11, 2020