Demographic Development in Light of the 21st Century Crises: a Theoretical Analysis

Demographic Development in Light of the 21st Century Crises:
a Theoretical Analysis


Klupt M.A.

Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, St. Petersburg State University of Economics, St. Petersburg, Russia klupt@mail.ru

ID of the Article: 9361


For citation:

Klupt M.A. Demographic Development in Light of the 21st Century Crises: a Theoretical Analysis. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2022. No 11. P. 15-24




Abstract

The article discusses demographic development through the lens of COVID‑19 pandemic and migration crises of the 21st century. During such crises homeostatic mechanisms built in the demographic system cannot withstand exogenic shocks. Interdependence between demographic system and its social and natural environment intensifies. To comprehend development in the period of crisis it is necessary to apply systemic approach that focuses on feedback loops, cascade effects and vulnerabilities. The reasons why epidemiological transition theory failed to predict possibility of the pandemics similar in the scope and impacts to COVID‑19 are analyzed. While one of the versions of this theory views epidemiological transition as a process completed in the developed countries, others, in the wake of events, added new stages to epidemiological transition and failed to predict unexpected dramatic changes. This failure of epidemiological transition theory shows that pandemics and migration crises cannot be comprehended by stadial demographic theories for they are intended to describe smooth and long-term processes. In the period of crises, the discourse of weaponization of mass migration become more influential. Increasing flows of refugees do not fit well with ideas of extending ‘post-material’ and shrinking ‘material’ motivation of behaviour in general and demographic behaviour in particular. Pandemic, armed conflicts and large-scale forced migrations challenge the success stories so popular among social theorists in the last decades.


Keywords
crisis; demographic system; forcible migration; COVID‑19 pandemic; epidemiological transition theory

References

Вишневский А.Г. Воспроизводство населения и общество. История, современность, взгляд в будущее. М.: Финансы и статистика, 1982. [Vishnevsky A.G. (1982) Reproduction of population and society. History, modernity, look into the future. Moscow: Finansy i statistika. (In Russ.)]

Вишневский А.Г. Эпидемиологический переход и его интерпретации // Демографическое обозрение. 2020. Т. 7. № 3. С. 6–50. [Vishnevsky A.G. (2020) Epidemiological transition and its interpretation. Demographicheskoye obozrenie [Demographic Review]. Vol. 7. No. 3: 6–50. (In Russ.)]. DOI: 10.17323/ demreview.v7i3.11635.

Семенова В.Г. Обратный эпидемиологический переход в России. М.: ЦСП, 2005. [Semenova V.G. (2005) Reversed Epidemiological Transition. Moscow: СSP. (In Russ.)]

Шевченко И.О., Шевченко П.В. От прекаризации занятости – к прекаризации жизни? // Социологические исследования. 2022. № 7. С. 63–75. [Shevchenko I.O., Shevchenko P.V. (2022) From employment precarization to life precarization? Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. No. 7: 63–75. (In Russ.)]. DOI: 10.31857/S013216250018464.

Anderson Th., Kohler H.-P. (2015) Low Fertility, Socioeconomic Development, and Gender Equity. Population and Development Review. Vol. 41. No. 3: 381–407.

Andreev E.M. (2019) Reflections on demographic theories. Population and Economics. Vol. 3. No. 2: 1–9. DOI: 10.3897/popecon.3.e37965.

Barrett R., Kuzawa C.W., McDade T., Armelagos G.J. (1998) Emerging infectious disease and the third epidemiological transition. Annual Review of Anthropoly. Vol. 27: 247–271.

Billari F. (2022) Demography: Fast and Slow. Population and Development Review. Vol. 48. No. 1: 9–30. DOI: 10.1111/padr.12464.

Greenhill K. (2010) Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement, Coercion, and Foreign Policy. Ithyaka, New York: Cornell University Press.

Jennequin A. (2020) Turkey and Weaponization of Syrian Refugees. Brussels: Brussels International Center.

Kuhn Th. (1962) The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago.

Livi-Bacci M. (2021) Nature, Politics, and the Traumas of Europe. Population and Development Review. Vol. 47. No. 3: 579–609. DOI: 10.1111/padr.12429.

Mackenbach J. (2021) The rise and fall of diseases: reflections on the history of population health in Europe since ca. 1700. European Journal of Epidemiology. Vol. 36: 1199–1205. DOI: 10.1007/ s10654-021-00719-7.

Myrskylä M., Kohler H.-P., Billari F. (2009) Advances in Development Reverse Fertility Declines. Nature. Vol. 460: 741–743.

Olshansky S., Ault B. (1986) The Fourth Stage of the Epidemiologic Transition: The Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases S. The Milbank Quarterly. Vol. 64. No. 3: 355–391.

Olshansky S., Carnesb B., Rogers R., Smith L. (1998) Emerging infectious diseases: the Fifth stage of the epidemiologic transition? World Health Statisics. Quarterly. Vol. 51: 207–217.

Omran A. (1971) The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the Epidemiology of Population Change. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly. Vol. 49. No. 4. Pt. 1: 509–538.

Omran A. (1998) The epidemiologic transition theory revisited thirty years later. World Health Statistics Quarterly. Vol. 51: 99–119.

Rogers R., Hackenberg R. (1987) Extending epidemiologic transition theory: A new stage. Social Biology. Vol. 34. No. 3–4: 234–243. DOI: 10.1080/19485565.1987.9988678.

UNDRR & UNU-EHS (2022) Understanding and managing cascading and systemic risks: lessons from COVID‑19. Geneva, Bonn.

Zagheni E. (2021) Covid‑19: A Tsunami That Amplifies Existing Trends in Demographic Research. In: MacKellar L., Friedman R. (eds) COVID‑19 and the Global Demographic Research Agenda: 77–82. New York: Population Council.

Content No 11, 2022