printDemographic Potential of the and Polarized Reproductive Behavior
Goncharova G.S.
Research Fellow, Department of Social and Legal Research, Institute of Philosophy and Law of SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia socis24@yandex.ru
Abramova M.A.
Dr. Sci. (Ed.), Prof., Leading Researcher, Head of the Department of the Social and Law Research, Institute Philosophy and Law SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia. marika24@yandex.ru
Goncharova G.S., Abramova M.A. Demographic Potential of the and Polarized Reproductive Behavior. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2026. No 5. P. 84-98
This study examines the preservation of the demographic potential of Russian regions through the lens of reproductive plan implementation during the period 2015–2022. The methodology employs a comparative analysis of fertility dynamics across two contrast groups of regions: those with sustained positive natural growth and those transitioning to depopulation. The primary analytical indicator is the Average Number of Birth Orders per woman (ANBP), complemented by an original Discrepancy Index (D) to quantify the gap between subjective intentions and actual childbearing behavior. Results demonstrate a fundamental transition toward a “demographic polarization” model. While the absolute number of births in Russia declined by 33% by 2022, the qualitative intensity of childbearing increased within specific groups, with national ANBP rising from 1.83 to 2.06 by 2021. Significant discrepancies between intended and actual children are observed across all territories, including the North Caucasus, indicating universal barriers to plan fulfillment. The research identifies a “critical window” for plan implementation (1–2 years), after which temporal erosion occurs under external pressures. The discrepancy index reached its historical peak in 2022 due to the cumulative effects of the COVID‑19 pandemic and geopolitical instability. These shocks, alongside ‘delayed parenthood’ and changing gender roles, further complicate parental scenarios. Structural analysis identifies a “demographic reserve” – approximately 15% of women (Group B) with unrealized needs for multi-child families – who serve a s the p rimary target for effective, addressable demographic policies. The findings provide actionable evidence-based recommendations for optimizing regional strategies to stabilize the demographic situation and effectively enhance sustainable reproduction in a modern Russia.
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