Revolutionary Activity in the Digital Age: Characteristics of Emergence and Development in the Context of Political Regimes

Revolutionary Activity in the Digital Age:
Characteristics of Emergence and Development in the Context of Political Regimes


Zhdanov A.I.

Junior Research Fellow, HSE University, Moscow, Russia andreizhdanov998@gmail.com

Korotayev A.V.

Ph.D., Dr. Sci. (Hist.), Director, HSE University, Moscow, Russia; Chief Researcher, Institute for African Studies of RAS, Moscow, Russia akorotayev@gmail.com

ID of the Article:


The research was carried out as part of the HSE Fundamental Research Program (HSE-BR-2025-48) in 2026 with the support of the Russian Science Foundation (project № 24-18-00650).


For citation:

Zhdanov A.I., Korotayev A.V. Revolutionary Activity in the Digital Age: Characteristics of Emergence and Development in the Context of Political Regimes. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2026. No 8. P. 3-14



Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of digital technologies and the internet on the emergence and development of revolutionary activity in the 21st century. The authors examine the internet as a significant new factor in political destabilization, noting its role in coordinating protests, overcoming state censorship, and shaping new behavioral patterns. The paper highlights key digital aspects of revolutionary destabilization: inflated value expectations, the associated increase in frustration, political polarization, and the simplification of agitation and communication. Particular attention is paid to the regime context: hypotheses are put forward that the level of internet penetration affects the likelihood of revolutions differently depending on the type of political regime, with the greatest vulnerability expected in democracies and anocracies. A positive correlation is also proposed between the level of internet restrictions and the risk of revolutionary uprisings. The study draws on modern theoretical approaches and empirical observations, including the phenomenon of “Zoomer revolutions.” This paper contributes to the debate between “cyber-optimists” and “cyber-pessimists” by offering a differentiated approach to assessing digital factors in different political systems. The results may be useful for predicting political risks and developing stability management strategies in the digital age.


Keywords
revolutions; internet; political regimes; Zoomer revolutions; digital revolutions; digital factors of revolutions; factors of revolutions

References

Голдстоун Дж., Гринин Л.Е., Коротаев А.В. Волны революций XXI столетия // ПОЛИС. Политические исследования. 2022. № 4. С. 108–119. DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2022.04.09; EDN: YWWQFZ. [Goldstone J., Grinin L.E., Korotayev A.V. (2022) Waves of Revolutions in the 21st Century. POLIS. Politichesskie issledovaniya [POLIS. Political Studies]. No. 4: 108–119. (In Russ.)]

Коротаев А.В., Жданов А.И. Количественный анализ политических факторов революционной дестабилизации. Опыт систематического обзора // Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз (Журнал политической философии и социологии политики). 2023. № 3(110). С. 149–171. DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2023-110-3-149-171; EDN: NAZUCB. [Korotayev A.V., Zhdanov A.I. (2023) Quantitative Analysis
of Political Factors of Revolutionary Destabilization: A Systematic Review. Politiya: Analiz. Khronika. Prognoz [Politeia: The Journal of Political Theory, Political Philosophy and Sociology of Politics]. No. 3(110): 149–171. (In Russ.)]

Коротаев А., Мусиева Д., Жданов А. Количественный анализ социально-демографических факторов революционной дестабилизации: результаты и перспективы // Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии. 2024. Т. 27. № 3. С. 106–145. DOI: 10.31119/jssa.2024.27.3.4; EDN: HMHOAS. [Korotayev A., Musieva D., Zhdanov A. (2024) Quantitative Analysis of Socio-Demographic Factors of
Revolutionary Destabilization: Results and Prospects. Zhurnal sotsiologii i sotsial’noi antropologii [The Journal of Sociology and Social Anthropology]. Vol. 27. No. 3: 106–145. (In Russ.)]

Коротаев А., Романов Д. и др. Влияние удельного числа интернет-пользователей на потенциал дестабилизации: предварительный количественный анализ // Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков. 2018. Т. 9. С. 222–247. EDN: ZBKXPN. [Korotayev A., Romanov D. et al. (2018) The Influence of the Specific Number of Internet Users on the Destabilization Potential: A Preliminary
Quantitative Analysis. Sistemnyi monitoring global’nykh i regional’nykh riskov [System Monitoring of Global and Regional Risks]. Vol. 9: 222–247. (In Russ.)]

Устюжанин В., Коротаев А., Гринин Л. Революционные события XXI века в афразийской макрозоне нестабильности и некоторых других мир-системных зонах: предварительный количественный анализ // Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков. 2021. Т. 12. С. 106– 144. EDN: FZSTVS. [Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Grinin L. (2021) Revolutionary Events of the 21st
Century in the Afrasian Macrozone of Instability and Some Other World-System Zones: A Preliminary Quantitative Analysis. Sistemnyi monitoring global’nykh i regional’nykh riskov [System Monitoring of Global and Regional Risks]. Vol. 12: 106–144. (In Russ.)]

Ajaegbu O.O., Ajaegbu C. (2024) The New Democratisation: Social Media Impact on the Political Process in Sub-Saharan Africa. Frontiers in Communication. No. 9: 1–6. DOI: 10.3389/fcomm.2024.1394949.

Akaev A., Korotayev A. et al. (2017) Technological Development and Protest Waves: Arab Spring as a Trigger of the Global Phase Transition? Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 116: 316– 321. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.009.

Ali M.N. (2025) Digital Activism and Collective Mobilization: A Narrative Review of Social Identity, Group Efficacy, and the SIMCA Framework. Sinergi International Journal of Psychology. Vol. 3. No. 1: 38–51. DOI: 10.61194/psychology.v3i1.691.

Anderson A. (2021) “Networked” Revolutions? ICTs and Protest Mobilization in Non-Democratic Regimes. Political Research Quarterly. Vol. 74. No. 4: 1037–1051. DOI: 10.1177/1065912920958071.

Arkhipova A., Radchenko D. et al. (2018) “Rally Rebuild”: Internet in Protest and Protest on the Internet. Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic & Social Changes. No. 1: 12–35. DOI: 10.14515/ monitoring.2018.1.02.

Chenoweth E., Cebul M. (2026) Why Gen Z Is Rising. Journal of Democracy. Vol. 37. No. 1: 5–14. DOI: 10.1353/jod.2026.a977940.

Davies J.C. (1962) Toward a Theory of Revolution. American Sociological Review. Vol. 27. No. 1: 5–19. DOI: 10.2307/2089714.

Enikolopov R., Makarin A., Petrova M. (2020) Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence from Russia. Econometrica. Vol. 88. No. 4: 1479–1514. DOI: 10.3982/ECTA14281.

Explaining Social Institutions. (1995) Ed. by J. Knight, I. Sened. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

Etim E., Fatile J.O. et al. (2025) Digital Activism and Collective Resistance to Police Brutality: Systematic Review of the Quieter and Less Visible Narratives of #EndSARS Protest. Social Sciences & Humanities Open. Vol. 12: 101722. DOI: 10.1016/j.ssaho.2025.101722.

Ferreira M.C., Dos Santos T.T. (2024) Social Media and Political Polarization as Threats to Democracy. Research, Society and Development. Vol. 13. No. 7: e7713746214. DOI: 10.33448/rsd-v13i7.46214.

Gallego A., Kurer T. (2022) Automation, Digitalization and Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace: Implications for Political Behavior. Annual Review of Political Science. Vol. 25. No. 1: 463–484. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-104535.

Gaur A. (2024) Social Media Addiction as a Correlate of Anxiety and Frustration. International Journal of Social Science and Education Research. Vol. 6. No. 2: 22–24. DOI: 10.33545/26649845.2024.v6.i2a.111.

Goldstone J.A. (2014) Revolutions: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Grinin L., Korotayev A. (2022) The Arab Spring: Causes, Conditions, and Driving Forces. In: Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century. Ed. by J.A. Goldstone, L. Grinin, A. Korotayev. Cham: Springer Nature: 595–624. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_23.Gurr T.R. (1970) Why Men Rebel. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Interian R., Marzo R.G. et al. (2023) Network Polarization, Filter Bubbles and Echo Chambers: An Annotated Review of Measures and Reduction Methods. International Transactions in Operational Research. Vol. 30. No. 6: 3122–3158. DOI: 10.1111/itor.13224.

Islam M.S., Faisal M.M. (2026) The July Revolution: Fatalities and Narratives in Bangladesh’s 2024 Anti-Discrimination Movement. International Journal of Discrimination and the Law. DOI: 10.1177/13582291261424344.

Jing Z., Yang W. et al. (2025) Correlations between Social Media Addiction and Anxiety, Depression, FoMO, Loneliness and Self-Esteem among Students: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. PLOS One. Vol. 20. No. 9: e0329466. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0329466.

Ko C.H., Yen J.Y. et al. (2008) The Association between Internet Addiction and Belief of Frustration Intolerance: The Gender Difference. CyberPsychology & Behavior. Vol. 11. No. 3: 273–278. DOI: 10.1089/cpb.2007.0095.

Kobellarz J.K., Broćić M. et al. (2022) Reaching the Bubble May Not Be Enough: News Media Role in Online Political Polarization. EPJ Data Science. Vol. 11. No. 1: 47. DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00357-3.

Korotayev A., Grinin L. et al. (2025) The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part I: When, Why and How Did It Emerge. Critical Sociology. Vol. 51. No. 2: 257–282. DOI: 10.1177/08969205241300596

Korotayev A.V., Sawyer P.S., Romanov D.M. (2021) Socio-Economic Development and Protests: A Quantitative Reanalysis. Comparative Sociology. Vol. 20. No. 2: 195–222. DOI: 10.1163/15691330-bja10030.

Korotayev A., Shishkina A., Khokhlova A. (2022) Global Echo of the Arab Spring. In: Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century: The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change. Ed. by J. Goldstone, L. Grinin, A. Korotayev. Cham: Springer Nature: 813– 849. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_31.

Korotayev A., Zhdanov A. (2022) Factors of Deconsolidation of a Liberal-Democratic Regime: The Case of the United States. Cliodynamics. Vol. 13: 1–34. DOI: 10.21237/C7clio13054207.

Korotayev A., Zhdanov A. et al. (2025) Revolution and Democracy in the Twenty-First Century. Cross-Cultural Research. Vol. 59. No. 2: 180–215. DOI: 10.1177/10693971241245862.

Marshall M., Gurr T. (2020) Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2018. Dataset Users’ Manual. Polity5 Project.

Ruijgrok K. (2017) From the Web to the Streets: Internet and Protests under Authoritarian Regimes. Democratization. Vol. 24. No. 3: 498–520. DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2016.1223630.

Saud M., Margono H. (2021) Indonesia’s Rise in Digital Democracy and Youth’s Political Participation. Journal of Information Technology & Politics. Vol. 18. No. 4: 443–454. DOI: 10.1080/19331681.2021.1900019.

Sawyer P., Romanov D. et al. (2022) Urbanization, the Youth, and Protest: A Cross-National Analysis. Cross-Cultural Research. Vol. 56. No. 2–3: 125–149. DOI: 10.1177/10693971211059762

Scherman A., Rivera S. (2021) Social Media Use and Pathways to Protest Participation: Evidence from the 2019 Chilean Social Outburst. Social Media + Society. Vol. 7. No. 4: 20563051211059704. DOI: 10.1177/20563051211059704.

Schleffer G., Miller B. (2021) The Political Effects of Social Media Platforms on Different Regime Types. Texas National Security Review (Preprint). Summer. DOI: 10.26153/TSW/13987.

Slinko E., Bilyuga S. et al. (2017) Regime Type and Political Destabilization in Cross-National Perspective: A Re-Analysis. Cross-Cultural Research. Vol. 51. No. 1: 26–50. DOI: 10.1177/1069397116676485

Urman A., Ho J.C., Katz S. (2021) Analyzing Protest Mobilization on Telegram: The Case of the 2019 Anti-Extradition Bill Movement in Hong Kong. PLoS ONE. Vol. 16. No. 10: e0256675. DOI: 10.1371/ journal.pone.0256675.

Ustyuzhanin V.V., Mikheeva V.A. et al. (2023) Economic Origins of Revolutions: The Link between GDP and the Risk of Revolutionary Events. Politeia: The Journal of Political Theory, Political Philosophy and Sociology of Politics. Vol. 108. No. 1: 64–87. DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2023-108-1-64-87.

Weidmann N.B. (2019) The Internet and Political Protest in Autocracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Wijermars M., Lokot T. (2022) Is Telegram a “Harbinger of Freedom”? The Performance, Practices and Perception of Platforms as Political Actors in Authoritarian States. Post-Soviet Affairs. Vol. 38. No. 1–2: 125–145. DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2022.2030645.

Zhdanov A., Kosolapov K. (2025) Exploring the Polarization of American Elites Based on the Analyses of Candidates’ Statements during the 2020 Presidential Election. Democracy and Security. Vol. 21. No. 2: 93–112. DOI: 10.1080/17419166.2024.2389449.

Content No 8, 2026